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Effect of Y2K on CADD Software
The infamous Y2K problem plaguing the worlds governments, airlines, post offices, and banks, essentially will almost completely bypass the worlds of architecture, construction, and architectural CADD, almost unnoticed.
Anyone using Macintosh, or current Windows95 software, knows that these systems have been more intelligently been designed to represent years with more than 2 digits. Since the construction industry and architectural design industries were somewhat slow to adopt computers and CADD, the vast majority use microcomputers, where the problem simply doesn't exist. The trend over the last half-decade actually has been to replace the old dinosaur computers with networks of microcomputers, and the Y2K issue will simply speed up that process, since it is far far cheaper in most cases to simply get current with new microcomputers than to hire cadres of programmers to comb millions of lines of antiquated Cobal and Fortran code. Also, the construction industry is far less dependent on dates than banks and airlines. Other than pass-through problems their own banks (for payroll) and scheduling software (and hopefully they are using current software) the construction, design, and CADD industries can pretty much count themselves lucky. Until, at least, 2100. If you check your Windows95 system, you will notice it handles 2000 just fine, but the calendar only goes to 2099 (the Macintosh systems have a similar futuristic date). Also, you will notice you cannot get it to go before 1980 (the year IBM microcomputers were born).
Apparently there is something about the 28 year solar cycle and the 18 year lunar cycle, and something about the current roman calendar system that creates an unknown anomaly next century and no-one has determined how to resolve it yet. (Similar to the 4 day difference in the French and English calendars that was not resolved until the 1830's).
No CADD software in use by architects has a problem with the "millennium bug" and, in answer to the hype, each of the CADD software developers has already issued statements on the "Y2K Compliance" of AutoCAD, DataCAD, MiniCAD, MicroStation, ArchiCAD, and so on.
Actually, you have to ask yourself, when was the last time you used any macro to automatically put the date into the drawing anyway. For the most part drawings are just lines, and nothing is going to happen to them. If you did put a date into a drawing and it was wrong you would see that right away and change it.
What is important for design firms about Y2K
What is an important thing for design firms to look at (other than their financial accounting or scheduling software) is their backup system and their network.
Some firms still use tape backup systems - something I do not recommend as they have an astoundingly poor level of reliability anyway - that are pretty old, and many of the software programs for these old tape backup systems is based on DOS the old discontinued operating system. Even if you are running Windows95/98/NT that old tape system may be "calling" an old DOS routine, and those, indeed, can get messed up with the year issue. The worst case scenario is that your perfectly working CADD with Y2K compliance on the systems that work fine (and have electricity) in January 2000, is that your antique automatic backup system gets the date wrong and copies over all your current work with stuff from years ago. 1) There is NO recovery from this worst case scenario, because you just blew away your backup. 2) In troubleshooting problems in hundreds of offices we have seen old tape systems do this even without the year 2000 issue (which is another reason we do not recommend tape). 3) If you had been burning CD-ROMs as you should be there would be no problem in the first place.
The other problem is that some people may have old operating systems for or connected to their network, which can mistakenly send signals that things have expired and mess up your otherwise perfectly Y2K compliant system, most noticeably tell your tape backup system (which you shouldn't have) the wrong date.
Also, one serious thing for some of us who use a lot of email, but are still using old versions of Eudora, is that it can mess up on dates sometimes (even on otherwise bulletproof Macintosh) and suddenly trash all your old mail. We recommend storing mail you really need to keep in dated labeled folders as text files - not keeping it in your email reader, and think about upgrading that email reader eventually.
The Hype
Just look at any magazine, whether or not it has anything to do with computers, and you will see a myriad of controversy and near hysteria concerning the Y2K "bug" issue. Certainly you can go to any search engine on the web and find more articles on the subject than would be possible to read in several years. For certain types of systems - i.e. mainframes using the old fortran and cobol languages, yes, there is indeed a problem with using only two places (instead of four) for the date. Certain companies who still use such systems, and don't have the resources to upgrade equipment regularly, would indeed have automatic systems that would mistakenly think something has expired or out of date (because these simple systems would do things like subtract 98 from 00 and, instead of telling you something is 2 years that it is negative -98 years). Modern banks, airports, airlines, wall street, and most of the US government agencies (yes, even the IRS) all have plenty enough money and have been continually updating their computer systems on a regular basis for many years, and thus don't really have a problem. Businesses that have much less cash, and which got computers in the early days, and have NOT been keeping up with systems, certainly do have a problem. Think of any business using computers for a long time that has a very tight budget and you can pinpoint people with a problem. For instance, school administrations, mid-size utility companies (the small ones can change easier, and the really big ones have the resources to change), some accounting firms, and so on, need to upgrade, but even now, despite the publicity of this issue, don't have the budgets to hire programmers or buy new computers.
Most of the Y2K problems from such companies will NOT pop up instantly on January 1, 2000 (it is a Saturday anyway), but will plague these little companies for years to come - at least until they finally replace their computers with microcomputers or NT servers and the like (which, in the long run, is cheaper than hiring programmers to fix antiquated computer code). In fact, to actually FIX the problem (which leaves the company with antiquated computers) is currently estimated to take until the year 2015, which means, essentially, the problem will never get fixed - the computers will ultimately get replaced.
For the most part, any problems that pop up will be easily identifiable, and quickly remediated by hand or with a quick - or what will become standard - phone call. So that when you get an automatic bill from your local gas company for $ 1,429,438.34 there will be a simple phone voice mail number to call to fix it - as such companies will find it easier and cheaper to put in a note about "billing questions" than to actually fix the software "bug". What is, of course, more dangerous, are the smaller, less noticed errors, where amounts are so small you just end up paying them anyway.
For critical operations, such as electric power, mortgages, traffic control, and so on, this Y2K thing has alerted enough organizations so that humans will be right there ready to flick switches back on - or prevent them from going off in the first place - regardless of whether any misguided computer information automatically tries to shut things off.
Another area of concern and hype is the supposed plethora of semi-intelligent systems in our midst. For instance, elevators have been automatic since the 1950's, but the energy crisis of the 1970's helped to develop a generation of elevators working on a 7 day schedule - i.e. they would work differently on weekends - which, later in the mid 80's was updated to be on a yearly schedule - so that the elevators would automatically keep track of holidays and leap year too. It is this 1980's "semi-intelligent" update that has people believing that things like elevators, escalators, stop lights, and microwave ovens, will stop working. However, in virtually all these cases, any such semi-intelligence was just a convenience, and all of them have manual switches right there to turn them back on.
The alarmists (who think that this is the end of the world) should remember that the world turns, and that it will take 24 hours for everywhere to "turn 2000". Assuming the absolute WORST, and power starts going off, and missiles in Fiji, New Zealand and the Philippines start going off, we, here, in the USA would be the last effected, giving people and authorities a lot of time to control reaction - assuming any was really needed. The first place the time change is in Fiji, then NZ, Aust., Japan, and so on through asia, europe, and, 18 hours later, the USA and finally Hawaii. If we really saw power going off in europe, we would have another 4 hours to make sure that doesn't happen here.
Thus in all circumstances, in our view, there is nothing that will stop the world. We will have inconveniences, but that will last for years, and these inconveniences will be no worse than trying to deal with "computerized" organizations in the past - i.e. who among us has ever not had a snafu with the department of motorvehicles or some other inanely bureaucratic organization that was not their fault.
The Real Danger
The actual real danger in all this, are the alarmists. The survivalists. The people who tell you to get $ xxx dollars out of the bank. As we all learned in the movie "It's a Wonderful Life" the banks DON'T HAVE your money - they in turn have already lent it out in the form of mortgages, loans, and investments, expecting to have it for some period of time. If everyone were to go get money out of the bank at the same time - it would be exactly what happened in 1929 that caused a financial crisis. Fortunately, because of all the safeguards put into place since then specifically because of that crisis, any "run on banks" would not have anyway near as much effect. There is currently planned for a rise in spending in the fourth quarter of 1999 (tent sales are up !) with an expected minor dip in the economy during early 2000, which should bounce back up later in the spring as the building boom continues.
Benefits of the Y2K Issue
One really good thing about all this is that it is causing companies to do an assessment of their current software and computer hardware use - which is something outside computer consultants and inside MIS and IT techies recommend doing every couple of years anyway. Also, to avoid potential problems from colleagues, suppliers, and clients, many companies are actually allocating better budgets for the computer departments (something they have all been clamoring for for years). Also, since the best and easiest way to solve any Y2K problem is to buy a new microcomputer, we expect a real computer purchasing boom, not just now, but for many years to come.
On a lighter note, you will find that a lot of computer humor is about the hoopla and over-reaction to this Y2K issue,
so relax and read some of it here. Link to CADD Humor
Other dates to watch for computers
Jan. 1, 2000 isn't the only date that may confuse computers. Programmers are testing for dates that may cause problems.
Some other dates, and why programmers are watching them:
Sept. 9, 1999: This date is often seen as a ``magic number,'' because its four-digit representation would be 9999, which may also serve as a special flag in older software code. (Same risk for April 9 -- the 99th day of the 99th year.)
Dec. 31, 1999: The last day of the two-digit year ``99''. Coders in the 1970s may have used some form of ``123199'' as a special flag meaning something like ``do not erase this data until the end of 1999,'' thinking that date was too far off to worry about.
Jan. 6, 2000: This is a Thursday in the Year 2000, but a Saturday in 1900. If a computer thinks it's 1900, there might be problems.
Feb. 29, 2000: Year 2000 is a leap year. If a computer doesn't know that, it will miss the added day in February. (Same potential problem with Mar. 1.)
Jan. 1, 2001: First calendar year change following the Year 2000. The day is a Monday. If a computer doesn't recognize the year 2000, it may think it's 1901. Or even if it did recognize the year 2000, it may not transition properly to 2001.
The Odds
0.05 % - Chance that Windows95 systems will develop a serious problem on January 1, 2000 due to internal Y2K "bug"
6 % - Chance that Windows95 systems will develop a serious problem on January 1, 2000 due to some nut creating a virus that activates on that date
0.001 % - Chance that Macintosh systems will develop a serious problem on January 1, 2000 due to internal Y2K "bug"
1 % - Chance that Macintosh systems will develop a serious problem on January 1, 2000 due to some nut creating a virus that activates on that date
2 % - Chance that Network servers will screwup some important task such as automatic backups and overwrite newer versions
3 % - Chance that there will be an intermittent 5 second electric power outage on Jan 1, 2000 in certain local regions of the eastern USA
0.0001 % - Chance this power glitch will affect broadcast television
60 % - Chance that the electric power will go off at least somewhere in the world for at least 1 minute
8 % - Chance that at least somewhere some streetlights, elevators, or stoplights will need resetting by hand and will be out until maintenance crews come
96 % - Chance that some nut case will time a bomb to go off somewhere on that date (because they tend to like famous dates)
100 % - Chance that the nut case bomb effects will be blamed on the computer Y2K problem in the press
0.02 % - Chance that a military missile will accidentally fire because of the Y2K glitch (anywhere in the world)
16 % - Chance that some mega-nut case will actually fire a missile on purpose (as they figure the confusion will be greater because of Y2K)
0.7 % - Chance that WindowsNT systems will develop a serious problem on January 1, 2000 due to internal Y2K "bug"
0.02 % - Chance that Windows98 systems will develop a serious problem on January 1, 2000 due to internal Y2K "bug"
17 % - Chance that your house or office alarm system has a Y2K problem
1 % - Chance that your house or office alarm system will not go off properly because of the Y2K problem
88 % - Chance that the low lifes will try to break into some houses / offices at that time because they think other Y2K confusion will distract police
94 % - Chance that TV news will cover the power outage / crime as it starts in first Australia, then Asia, and Europe, then USA
55 % - Chances that people will arm themselves
27 % - Chances that some religious nuts somewhere will kill themselves (will this happen on Dec. 25, or will they wait until April since Jesus was born in the spring in 4 BC, thus the true Christian millennia was 2 years ago (in 1997) or do we have another 29 years (i.e. Christ's death) ?)
11 % - Chance that you will be taken in by at least one Y2K scam, even though forewarned
55 % - Chance that AutoCAD will change the name of AutoCAD2000 specifically to avoid the moniker "A2K" by which Y2K is known in South America
85 % - Chance the stock market will drop during Nov/Dec 1999 (people selling off high tech stocks, etc.)
93 % - Chance the stock market will rise to record highs during summer 2000